The Wall Street Journal published an interesting story recounting the challenges Microsoft faces getting their next big product out the door, Windows Vista, the successor to Windows XP.  In short, the original product development plan collapsed under it's own weight, forcing Microsoft to scrap everything and start over.  The result is Microsoft delivering a product with fewer features almost two years later than originally planned.

Meanwhile, Google keep continutes to sneak cool stuff out the back door - gmail, desktop search, and more.  Worst of all for Microsoft, some of these products are deliver now what Microsoft has promised to include in Vista, desktop search is the best example.  By the time Microsoft's does deliver the much touted WinFS, Google Search will have rendered it irrelevant.

The tension descibed in the WSJ article between Bill Gates and Jim Allchin is a revealing one.  In their disagreement the core challenge of Microsoft is revealed.  The old model of large, multi-year release cycle, off the shelf software is being undermined by small, frequently updated, downloadable software. 

Ok, so here's the prognostication... 

By the time Windows Vista is released it will be a tough sell to consumers.  A negative impression of Microsoft by consumers will grow thanks to Spyware, while slick products like the iPod and OSX will capture consumers attention as they dream of computers being fun, useful, and cool again.  Meanwhile, Google will continue to release useful, virtually bug free, services.  Then, just before Vista is released, Google will announce the availability of the GoogleOS.  They will begin shipping millions of CDs, just like AOL.  The CD will contain a highly customized version of Linux that loads off the CD without damaging the installation of Windows on your hard drive.  There are already dozens of Linux live distros out there and Google has a lot of expertise with Linux, all their servers run it. 

Just pop the GoogleOS CD into your computer and reboot.  Google Desktop will find and index all the photos, word documents, and email already on your computer.  I'm guessing it will dig up all your settings, like desktop wallpaper, and pre-configure the Linux desktop to look just the way you like it.  Throw in OpenOffice, Firefox with the Google Toolbar, a Linux build of Picasa, and suddenly your computer is useful, fun, and spyware free. 

Microwho?